Net Zero Readiness Report: Agriculture

As with other sectors, the Russian government’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine put global agriculture under stress. Ukraine is a major producer of grain and oilseed as well as the world’s largest source of sunflower oil and the second largest supplier to the UN World Food Programme, while Russia has been a big producer of wheat, seed oil and fertilizer ingredients. Disruption in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia and sharply increasing energy prices caused by the conflict looked likely to accelerate a shift by farmers worldwide towards regenerative agriculture that uses less energy and inputs such as fertilizer.¹ Instead, it has encouraged farmers to improve efficiency by focusing on how to produce more with similar or lower levels of inputs. This reduces emissions intensities — levels of greenhouse gases generated for each unit of output — but has not made a significant difference to overall volumes. However, emissions from agriculture have taken an increasingly high profile as other sectors make big changes to address climate change. Ian Proudfoot, Global Head of Agribusiness, KPMG International, says that at present the sector is unable to make the obvious changes equivalent to a bus company replacing diesel vehicles with electric ones. “You can’t swap one cow for a lower-emissions cow at the current time,” he says. “Agriculture has been found wanting on not necessarily having the answers as to how to start its journey to a lower emissions future.” While some advocate replacing the output of dairy and livestock farming with plant-based alternatives, doing so can deprive people of products that they enjoy and that contribute to a nutritionally balanced diet.

The current lack of options may change given promising developments on reducing emissions from agriculture, many of which come from methane and nitrous oxide as well as carbon dioxide. Researchers are working on ways to treat dairy farming effluent that can prevent nearly all methane emissions.² This effluent could also be used to produce biofuels through anaerobic digestion and farming co-operatives in Europe and the United States are looking at how they could help their members take advantage of this.³ Emissions from cattle can also be reduced by adding seaweed to their food, with research on this taking place in countries including Australia, Ireland, the US and the UK.⁴ This is one of a range of ‘blue economy’ opportunities that involve using oceans to reduce or sequester greenhouse gases.⁵ More broadly farmers will increasingly be able to provide ecosystem services from the carbon they are able to sequester within their farming systems, creating a new revenue stream by selling verifiable carbon credits to offset emissions from sectors that will never be able to become climate positive in the way that biologically based sectors can aspire to be.

Some retailers and food processors are changing the way they work with farmers, moving from short-term contracts based primarily on price to longer-term partnerships. These can give buyers more security over supplies as well as providing financial stability for farmers to invest in reducing the climate impact of their operations. In some cases, such companies are supporting their farmers financially to lower their emissions by adopting new equipment or processes, helping to reduce their scope 3 supplier emissions. However, many food retailers have a strong focus on prices and are currently under pressure to prioritize low prices by politicians concerned about the cost of living.

New Zealand’s government has worked with organizations representing farmers and growers to develop a plan for emissions pricing at the level of individual farms, although this is still under negotiation.⁶ Regardless of the outcome in New Zealand, Proudfoot says that rewarding individual farmers looks like the best way to reduce emissions in the sector, given they have led agricultural innovation for thousands of years and have strong incentives to protect their lands, often their main asset. Governments should encourage farmers to collaborate internationally and with partners including food processors to find new ways cut their own emissions and sequester them for others: “We have got to unleash farmers to be a huge part of the solution, rather than expecting them to adopt whatever gets given to them,” he says.

Governments are increasingly looking to the world’s oceans and coasts to support their moves towards net zero. Oceans already provide the planet’s largest ‘carbon sink’ by absorbing 25 percent of all carbon dioxide emissions and 90 percent of the excess heat they generate, with mangrove forests on tropical and subtropical coasts being some of the most efficient ecosystems for storing carbon.⁷ By increasing areas covered by mangroves and other natural carbon sinks, countries with suitable coastlines could benefit financially by helping to meet rapidly growing demand for carbon assets while enjoying nature-related benefits including better flood protection and an improved marine environment.⁸

Alternatives include protecting and encouraging the spread of underwater seaweed forests, which Canadian charity Ocean Wise says can sequester carbon more effectively than planting trees.⁹ There is also potential to enhance the open ocean’s natural carbon sink function through methods including enhancing alkalinity, encouraging fertilization and injecting carbon dioxide, although these are yet to be fully tested.¹⁰

A new UN Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) agreement agreed in March 2023 will establish an international legal framework to protect the environment of more than the two-thirds of the oceans that are outside national management.¹¹

Josh Hasdell, Head of Global Blue Economy Services, KPMG in Canada, says the agreement is indicative of a shift away from seeing oceans and coasts as places for conservation. “It’s moved on from ‘let’s protect our oceans and keep our beaches clean’ to seeing oceans as fundamental to our survival and meeting our net zero goals,” he says. “We can’t go green without blue.”¹² He adds that there are challenges, including reliable verification of carbon sequestered through coastal ecosystems and the oceans and a lack of funding for such projects.

As well as sequestration, oceans increasingly host renewable power generation in the form of offshore wind. There is potential to go much further, including with floating solar farms, technologies that harness tides, waves and currents and the exploitation of differences in ocean temperatures and salt concentrations.¹³ Wild fisheries provide a low carbon source of protein as well as local jobs.¹⁴ While there is potential to mine minerals from ocean floors, the risk of causing severe environmental damage means that countries should be highly cautious about granting permits until all the ramifications can be fully understood.

For emerging coastal and small island nations, blue economy and blue carbon ecosystems offer a platform for growth that can attract international funding and investment, allowing them to undertake cultivation while achieving just transitions and increasing economic prosperity